Latest Analysis
-
Featured
Energy & Economics
Why the Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Sent Fuel Prices Soaring — Even Though It Only Supplies a Fraction of World Oil
The waterway carries roughly one-fifth of global oil. So how has blocking it triggered one of the worst energy crises since the 1970s? The answer reveals how global oil markets really work — and why "only 20%" is anything but small.
-
Scenario Analysis
What Happens If the Strait of Hormuz Stays Closed? Pipeline Workarounds, Reserve Limits, and the Worst-Case Scenarios
Three weeks in with no resolution, economists are stress-testing scenarios from stagflation to global recession. Here is what the numbers actually say.
-
Geopolitics & Defence
Why Is Trump Asking Europe and the UK for Military Help? Inside the US Military Calculus on the Strait of Hormuz
He said he didn't need anyone. Now he's calling in every chit he has. What changed — and why are Europe and the UK turning him down?
-
Energy Security
Who Gets Hurt Most? How the Hormuz Crisis Is Hitting Asia, Europe, and the Developing World Differently
Japan, South Korea, and India face an acute energy crunch. Europe is exposed through gas and fertilisers. Pakistan may face blackouts. A breakdown of who is most vulnerable — and why.
-
Iran & Regional Affairs
Iran's Asymmetric Strategy: Why Tehran Is Winning by Not Fighting
Iran has avoided direct conventional confrontation with the U.S. military — and yet it has brought the global economy to its knees. An analysis of the strategic logic behind the chokepoint campaign.
-
Global Order
After Hormuz: What the Crisis Reveals About the Fragility of the Global Energy Order
The crisis has exposed how the world's energy infrastructure was built on assumptions that no longer hold. What needs to change before the next crisis hits.
-
Food Security
From Missiles to Meal Prices: How the Iran-Israel-US Conflict Is Driving Global Food Inflation
Fertiliser shortages, disrupted grain shipping routes, and spiking diesel costs are converging into a food price crisis that will outlast the conflict itself.
-
Africa
A War Africa Didn't Start: How the Hormuz Crisis Is Devastating Economies Across the Continent
From fuel queues in Nairobi to power cuts in Accra and import inflation in Lagos — African nations are absorbing punishing economic blows from a conflict thousands of miles away.
-
Global Conflict
Why This Won't Become World War Three — Russia Is Spent, China Is Reluctant, and the Math Doesn't Add Up
The conditions that produced WW1 and WW2 don't exist today. Russia is financially and militarily exhausted by Ukraine. China has too much to lose. Here's why escalation has a ceiling.
-
North Korea
Kim Jong-un's Calculation: Why North Korea Might — or Might Not — Move Closer to Iran
Pyongyang has already shown it will sell weapons to anyone willing to pay. But openly aligning with Tehran against the U.S. is a different order of risk. What is Kim actually thinking?
-
China
Why China Is Watching the Hormuz Crisis in Silence — and What It Is Quietly Calculating
Beijing has called for a ceasefire and said nothing of substance. But China imports more Gulf oil than any nation on earth. Its silence is not neutrality — it is strategy.
-
Russia
Russia's Windfall and Its Limits: How Moscow Is Exploiting the Hormuz Crisis Without Being Able to Capitalise on It
High oil prices fill the Kremlin's war chest — but sanctions, infrastructure damage, and military overstretch mean Russia can cheer from the sidelines, not join the game.
-
Economics
The $140 Barrel Threshold: What Oil at That Price Does to the Global Economy
Oxford Economics calls it the "breaking point." At $140 per barrel sustained for two months, the eurozone, Japan, and the UK tip into contraction. Here is the mechanism — step by step.
-
Diplomacy
Is There a Diplomatic Off-Ramp? What a Hormuz Settlement Might Actually Look Like
Every war ends with a negotiation. What would Iran need to reopen the strait — and what would the U.S. and Israel have to give up to get it? A hard-headed look at the possible deals.
-
Iran
Inside Iran: How the Population Is Living Through Bombardment, Sanctions, and Economic Collapse
While Western analysis focuses on oil prices and military exchange rates, 90 million Iranians are living through one of the most severe economic contractions in the country's modern history.
-
Middle East
The Gulf States' Impossible Position: Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar Between Washington and Tehran
Gulf monarchies depend on the U.S. for security but need Iran's waters to export their oil. They have been caught between two patrons in a war neither consulted them about.
-
Nuclear
Has Operation Epic Fury Set Back Iran's Nuclear Programme — or Accelerated It?
The strikes were justified as destroying Iran's path to a bomb. But history and Iranian political psychology suggest the opposite may be true. A hard assessment of what the bombing actually achieved.
-
Markets
How Financial Markets Are Pricing the Hormuz Crisis — and What Traders Are Getting Wrong
Bond yields, equity volatility, shipping futures, and commodity spreads are all telling slightly different stories about how long this lasts. We decode what markets actually know — and don't.
-
Russia
Ukraine Changed Everything: Why Russia Cannot Be the Military Partner Iran Might Want
Two years of attritional warfare in Ukraine has left Russia's military depleted, its defence industry strained, and its treasury dependent on oil prices it cannot control. Putin is cheering — not helping.
-
North Korea
The Arms Dealer's Dilemma: How North Korea Is Profiting From Global Instability Without Joining It
Pyongyang has sold artillery shells to Russia, drones to Iran's proxies, and ballistic missile technology to anyone with cash. The current crisis is good for business — but joining it openly is a different matter.
-
China
Taiwan in the Shadow of Hormuz: Is China Using the Crisis to Recalibrate Its Timeline?
With U.S. military assets stretched across the Middle East, some analysts argue the Hormuz crisis creates a window of opportunity for China regarding Taiwan. The reality is more nuanced — and more concerning.
-
Africa
Africa's Fertiliser Crisis: How the Hormuz Closure Is Threatening the Continent's 2026 Harvest
Sub-Saharan Africa imports over 60% of its nitrogen fertilisers. With Hormuz closed and prices surging, the window for spring planting is closing — with food security consequences that will last years.
-
Food Security
The Nitrogen Chokepoint: Why Fertiliser Disruption Is the Slow-Burning Catastrophe Inside the Hormuz Crisis
Oil prices are visible and immediate. The fertiliser shortage is quieter, slower — and potentially more damaging. A deep dive into how the disruption flows from a closed strait to an empty plate.
-
Geopolitics
The New Axis of Convenience: Iran, Russia, and North Korea Are Not an Alliance — But They Don't Need to Be
Shared enemies, parallel interests, and mutually beneficial transactions have created a network of cooperation between three pariah states. Understanding it matters more than naming it.
-
Africa
Dollar Crunch: How the Hormuz Oil Shock Is Triggering Currency Crises Across Africa
When global oil prices spike in dollars, African nations that pay for fuel imports in dollars see their currencies collapse. It is a mechanism as old as oil — and it is happening again, right now.
-
Europe
Europe's Energy Paradox: The Continent Rebuilt Its Gas Reserves After Russia — Now It Faces a New Shock It Didn't Plan For
Europe spent three years and hundreds of billions rebuilding energy security after Russia cut off gas in 2022. The Hormuz crisis is now stress-testing whether that rebuild was enough.
-
Israel
What Does Israel Actually Want? The War Aims Behind Operation Epic Fury — and Whether They Are Achievable
Destroying Iran's nuclear capability, eliminating missile threat, decapitating the IRGC. Israel's objectives are clear — but whether bombing alone can achieve them is a question military history answers with scepticism.
-
United States
The War Trump Didn't Sell: Why the American Public Is Deeply Divided Over Operation Epic Fury
Unlike Iraq in 2003 or Afghanistan in 2001, there was no public case made for this war before it started. Polling shows a country that is sceptical, anxious, and increasingly paying for it at the pump.
-
Global Order
The End of the Unipolar Moment: How the Hormuz Crisis Marks the Point of No Return for American Global Leadership
When the world's most powerful military needs to beg its allies for help reopening a strait — and those allies say no — something fundamental has changed. A long view of what is really happening.
-
Future
After the War: What the Middle East, the Global Energy System, and the Western Alliance Will Look Like When the Shooting Stops
Conflicts end. The question is what they leave behind. A strategic assessment of the post-war landscape — from Iran's future to NATO's credibility and the long-term trajectory of global energy markets.